Pengantar Pertemuan Dengan Investor Global Ray Dalio dan Para Pengusaha Nasional

Presiden Prabowo Subianto:
Bismillahirrahmanirrahim.

Assalamu’alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh,
Salam sejahtera bagi kita sekalian,
Syalom,
Salve,
Om swastiastu,
Namo buddhaya,
Salam kebajikan.

Saudara-saudara sekalian yang saya hormati.

Bapak-Ibu yang saya hormati,
Pertama, tentunya kita selalu memanjatkan puji syukur ke hadirat Tuhan Mahakuasa, bagi umat Islam Allah SWT, atas segala karunia yang telah diberikan kepada kita, atas kesehatan sehingga kita dapat berkumpul sore hari ini untuk melaksanakan pertemuan informal dengan para pengusaha nasional Indonesia, dengan para tokoh, dan para pejabat, terutama hari ini kita mendapat kehormatan kehadiran Mr. Raymond Thomas Dalio, bisa dikatakan seorang pengusaha, seorang entrepreneur, seorang investor global yang telah banyak pengalaman selama beberapa puluh tahun, yang telah bergerak di bidang ekonomi, di bidang investasi puluhan tahun di kawasan kita, di Asia, di Timur Tengah. Dan, beliau sangat berpengalaman, berinteraksi dengan sovereign wealth fund dari beberapa negara. Beliau hadir pada saat Tiongkok melakukan pembukaan dunia pada zaman Deng Xiaoping dan selanjutnya.

Saya kenal beliau. Beberapa saat yang lalu, saya banyak diskusi sama beliau. Dan, beliau banyak mengamati perkembangan kita, Republik Indonesia, dan beliau banyak memberi saya masukan.

Saudara-saudara sekalian,
Bersama-sama, kita beberapa saat yang lalu telah menggagas dan telah melahirkan sebuah, bisa dikatakan suatu sovereign wealth fund yang cukup besar potensinya, yaitu yang kita beri nama Badan Pengelola Investasi Danantara Indonesia (Daya Anagata Nusantara). Danantara Indonesia ini merupakan konsolidasi kekuatan ekonomi yang dimiliki oleh Pemerintah Republik Indonesia, yaitu intinya BUMN, usaha-usaha negara. Dan, Danantara ini kita konsolidasikan untuk melaksanakan suatu perbaikan, suatu peningkatan dalam kinerja dengan melakukan perbaikan-perbaikan di mana perlu perbaikan.

Dan, kita akui sendiri bahwa kita banyak perlu perbaikan semuanya supaya kinerja aset-aset kita cukup baik. Dengan demikian, kita mengundang semua pihak yang bisa memberi kepada kita suatu pandangan-pandangan yang kritis, pengalaman mereka, bagaimana mereka melakukan investasi sehingga nanti pengelolaan aset-aset Indonesia itu bisa dilakukan dengan sebaik-baiknya, sehati-hati mungkin, dan bahwa nanti semua entitas ekonomi kita dilaksanakan dengan efisiensi yang bisa bersaing dengan semua entitas di dunia.

Kita akan bergerak dengan cepat, tapi kita akan bergerak dengan sangat teliti dan hati-hati. Dengan demikian, saya mengundang tokoh-tokoh ekonomi Indonesia yang di bidang swasta, yang sudah punya pengalaman sendiri puluhan tahun dalam manajemen, dalam investasi, dalam pengelolaan untuk bersama-sama dengan pemerintah sehingga nanti pelaksanaan dari Danantara ini akan dilakukan dengan cermat dan dengan teliti.

Saya kira itu pembukaan dari saya.

Ray, I hope I still can call you “Ray” always. Ray, you are a good friend, you’ve become a good friend of mine, and I think we would like you to be a good friend of Indonesia.

I just explained how we are very fortunate in having you as a very experienced, let us say, a very experienced player in global economy, a lot of experience in Asia, in the Middle East, in the world, and we are very fortunate in having you as as a friend. And, we would like to always interact with you, listen from you (about) your experiences. I think you are in a position that you can talk with us openly and sometimes critically. And, I think we do need a critical advice. And, I think this is the key to progress in the world, it is always to be able to seek critical advice and have the courage to learn from others. I think that’s the key.

We have already had a lot of efforts, but now we want to launch this, we have launched this national new sovereign wealth fund. And, we are very fortunate in having you today. So, I think it’s a very long introduction, but I think we just go straight to this event.

I would like to introduce you to those who are present here.

To my left is, I think you know him, he is a friend of yours, Mr. Luhut Panjaitan/General Luhut Panjaitan who is now the Chairman of our National Economic Council.

And on the right, next to you, is our Minister of Finance Mrs. Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

And then, to my left directly is our Minister of Energy and Minerals Mr. Bahlil Lahadalia.

And then, around the table is Mr. Syamsuddin who are more known as Haji Isam. But his full name is Mr. Andy Syamsuddin Arsyad who is from the Jhonlin Group.

And then, Mr. Chairil Tanjung from CT Corporation.

And then, Mr. James Riady from Lippo Group.

And then, Mr. Projogo Pangestu from Barito and Chandra Asri.

Chandra Asri is in petrochemicals, right? And, Barito is in forestry.

And, Lippo is in banking, real estate, and many other… food also. I remember it’s got one of the biggest retail in Indonesia: Matahari Department Stores and Supermarkets.

And then, Mr. Tommy Winata from Artha Graha Group that is in banking, also real estate, a lot of social work.

And then, Mr. Edward Wanandi who is actually based mostly in United States, right? And, he is kind enough. I’ve asked him to be my advisor in helping me navigate relations with United States. I think we need a lot of help in navigation there.

And then, Mr. Pandu Sjahrir who is now (the leadership) of Danantara. He is the Chief Investment Officer.

And then, Mr. Dony Oskaria who is the COO (Chief Operating Officer) of Danantara. He is also the Deputy Minister of State-Owned Enterprises.

And then, Mr. Sakti Wahyu Trenggono who is the Minister of Sea and Fisheries.

I know you are passionate about the ocean. So, I asked him to attend.

And, of course, we have Mr. Rosan Roeslani who is now the CEO of Danantara. And, he is still the Minister of Investment and Downstream Industry.

And, of course, Mr. Erick Thohir who is the Minister of State-Owned Enterprises. And, he is the Chairman of the Supervisory Council of Danantara.

And then, we have Mr. Hashim Djojohadikusumo from Arsari Group who happens to be my brother, which is not his fault. (The President joked)

And then, next to him, we have Mr. Garibaldi Thohir who is a leading entrepreneur in Indonesia. He is from Adaro Group. He happens also to be the brother of Erick Thohir, which is not Erick Thohir’s fault. (The President joked)

And then, next to Garibaldi is Mr. Aguan. His full name is Mr. Sugianto Kusuma/Aguan from Agung Sedayu Group which is also a conglomerate, based on I think property, but a lot of industries also.

And then, Mr. Hilmi Panigoro who is from MedcoEnergi, mainly into oil and gas, but also now into other forms of mining.

Then, we have Mr. Franky Widjaja from Sinar Mas Group.

Then, finally, we have Mr. Anthony Salim from the Salim Group.

And then, of course, I am backed up by my Minister of State Secretariat and my Cabinet Secretary. They are in charge of my presidential administration.

So, that’s the introduction.

And now, I think, we invite Mr. Ray Dalio maybe to make some comments. And then, we can start the discussion.

What do you think?

Investor Global Ray Dalio:
Thank you very much, Mr. President. And, thank you for the wonderful introduction and also thank you for the introduction to all of these wonderful people.

I should give you a little bit of background. I’ve been a global macro investor for over 50 years, and that has brought me to many countries around the world and working with the leadership of those countries and the financial institutions, particularly sovereign wealth funds. And, I’m at a stage of my life. I am now 75 years old and I’m at a stage in my life, you know, that I don’t work for anyone other than I do work for inspiration.

And, I see in Indonesia and I see in President Prabowo. What I saw? When I was involved in China, starting in 1984 when Deng Xiaoping came in, and what I’ve seen when Lee Kuan Yew came in, and what I’m seeing with great leaders who have the capacity to take a country that has enormous potential and is on the brink of a transition and make it into something that’s quite unique. And, I measure the potential and the strengths when I come to any countries by statistics, like a health index. I have literally health indices of countries that I have used to project their next 10 years growth rates.

And, there’s a number of ingredients. If you’d like me to get into that, I’d be happy to get into those ingredients. But, there are a number of ingredients that show that Indonesia is at one of those takeoff points, that it has potential great, great potential for being changed and having extraordinary future. Those ingredients include a relatively low debt level, an ability to have capital that can be invested to create that takeoff point. Once there can be capital formation that is put with this high potential, you got a takeoff point that’s taking place in countries repeatedly. And, there are a number of such measures that show great potential.

And then, there are obstacles that have to be overcome. And, these measures show these types of obstacles, for example, bureaucratic obstacles, the ease of setting up a business, the entrepreneurship, the capital formation, corruption, many of those.

And through my experiences, I have had real world experiences in these countries, China, Singapore, a number of countries, in which I saw how those transitions took place, I know what they’re like, and I know the importance of a leader in being able to then take control of the situation and make those very difficult reforms, to be able to energize and capitalize, and also overcome the barriers of corruption that stand in the way, entrenched interests, how do you revitalize that country. And from speaking to President Prabowo, I think he can be that man. So, that brings me here to our situation where I’m having the pleasure of meeting you.

We’ve talked about these things. And, I can envision how this can happen. And, I also, I’m still in a position where I know partners those around the world who would be excited to be part of that in various ways. These include world leaders and so on because we now have a globalized environment in which they can come and help to revitalize and modernize and improve the efficiency of the country if it’s allowed to happen. So, that’s what brings me here today.

I follow the world. I’ve literally, I bet on what’s going to happen. I’m not an academic. I’m a professional global macro investor, and so I know these things, I bet on these things. And when I’m looking at this situation, I think, that potential exists. So, we have the pleasure of being able to do that.

I think that there are five factors that are now taking place in the world that everybody must pay attention to, that are driving the changes in the world order. People asked me, “How is the world order changing? How do I make sense of what is happening?”

I did a study over the last 500 years that became a book called The Changing World Order. And, there are five factors that are driving the changes in the world order, changing how things are happening. And, those five factors have to do first with money and debt and markets. There’s a cycle. Money is debt, debt is money, and there is a debt cycle that takes place. And, that affects everything because money is buying power, credit is buying power, and how that is used creates a debt cycle, and that’s a very important factor.

The second factor is, of course, countries. And certainly is true in the United States, very important, is the internal conflict between the left and the right that has become, that is populist. And when I say populist, I mean that there are irreconcilable differences. That it is a war. It is no longer a collaboration and a cooperation, and it no longer has compromises to it. It is a war between those two factors. And, we’ve seen this in many countries throughout time. So, that’s the second factor. That factor affects the first factor because it affects taxation, it affects what people think about how the whole country’s running.

And, of course, the third factor is in the change in the geopolitical war that also transpires in a cycle. And, the cycle begins when, after a war, there’s a war to determine who has what power and what the world order looks like. Well, that happened in 1945. And then through history, through 500 years, going back further in history, you see that there is an ark and there’s always a rising power that challenges an existing power and challenges the world order. And, we’re seeing that very much happen right now. You see that we’re moving from multilateralism, multinationalism to unilateralism. In other words: individual countries fighting for their interests in a way that has much less cooperation, and so we are in a type of war. That’s the third factor.

And, the fourth factor is through time, acts of nature. Droughts, floods and pandemics have killed more people than wars and have toppled more orders, domestic orders or international orders, than the other factors. And certainly, the acts of nature, the droughts, floods and pandemics, are a bigger influence today than ever before.

And, the fifth factor and the most powerful factor is men’s inventiveness, particularly of new technologies. And so, we now see what I believe is the most powerful invention of technology, which is in the form of artificial intelligence. Intelligence affects everything. It affects medicine, it affects how we’re doing, everything, government and so on. And so, those five factors together work to create these arcs and changes in the world order.

I’ve talked too long. But, I want to then say that I’m here because I’m inspired by what you can do together and the potential that exists if you can overcome those challenges here. That’s why I’m here.

I’m not here for money. I’ve made money. I’m giving away more money by far. So, I’m here for the inspiration of that if I can be of help and because of that potential. And then, I think about that contribution.

Anyway, thank you for inspiring me and thank you for letting me to be here to join you. And, I welcome our discussion.

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